The most overpriced war on the board is in the Persian Gulf

On July 24, the Wall Street Journal reported that Kuwait had secretly bombed Iran with its own fighter jets, with Bahrain joining in and the UAE flying cover. In March, Kuwait's ruler told his own country that he had allowed nobody to use Kuwaiti land, air, or water against Iran.

Polymarket still charges 4 cents for Iran invading Kuwait by August 31. Betting no returns 4% in 32 days.

The threat behind the price is because on July 17 an Iranian MP said that if America puts troops on the ground inside Iran, Iran may attack Kuwait and Bahrain. Three days later, a commentator listed American bases in Kuwait as targets, and a former foreign minister suggested taking 100 American soldiers hostage. Polymarket created the market that same day.

But Iran and Kuwait share no border. Kuwait touches Iraq and Saudi Arabia and nothing else. Any Iranian attack has to cross about 100km of the Persian Gulf, and Iran can no longer cross it.

• By April, more than 155 Iranian warships had been sunk or knocked out.
• All four of Iran's newest warships went down inside eight days in March.
• Roughly 70% of Iran's speedboats are gone.
• Iran's navy commander and his own intelligence chief were killed on March 26.

The only time that something even close to invasion happened was on May 1, when six Iranian commandos landed on Bubiyan, an empty Kuwaiti island, in a hired fishing boat. Four were captured. Iran said their navigation system had broken.

Lastly, there's one more reason why it's very unlikely for Iran to invade Kuwait. Waiting on the far shore are 13,500 American troops, the largest concentration anywhere in the Middle East, and air defenses that have been shooting Iranian drones down since February.