8 navies are priced to sail Hormuz and none has since May
Everyone pricing this market is watching the wrong navy, and the right one has been sitting in Oman since June
Washington plans to announce today, August 12, a 60-day arrangement on the Strait of Hormuz that was negotiated with Iran through Oman. Polymarket's warship transit market is a perfect option for this particular news. It prices 8 navies to sail the strait by August 31, and the most expensive flag on the board, the United States at 12.5 cents, is the one the reported deal bars from the waterway. Selling that leg pays about 14% in 19 days.
American warships have crossed the strait during this crisis. But, logically, the market only counts transits after its creation.
- Two US destroyers crossed on April 11 to open a merchant passage, and two more crossed in May through small boats, missiles, and drones
- No American transit has been confirmed since, and both carriers in the region sat in the northern Arabian Sea on Monday
- The emerging arrangement reportedly opens 2 lanes, inbound through Iranian waters and outbound through Omani waters, with US and Israeli vessels excluded
- A senior Iranian adviser said on August 4 that even deployed warships would be targeted
- Tehran's security council says the strait stays shut until six conditions are met, including the blockade ending and sanctions relief
The interesting contacts are the cheap ones. Military support vessels count under the rules, and Britain's mine-hunting mothership RFA Lyme Bay, with 270 personnel and its escort HMS Dragon, has been waiting at Duqm in Oman since late June for a demining mission the deal would finally permit. The UK contract costs 3.5 cents. On the other hand, every European government in the coalition has said its ships move only after hostilities definitively end.
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