We use cookies to analyse traffic and improve your experience. See our privacy policy.

24hr volume
Crypto$191.5M
44.7%
Sports$151.4M
35.3%
Finance$34.9M
8.1%
Esports$25.4M
5.9%
Politics$14.3M
3.3%
Culture$4.8M
1.1%
Weather$4.2M
1.0%
Other$2.3M
0.5%
TelegramX
Predictbook PROLimited-time access
Explore

Menu

Home
Signals
Live Feed
Reports
Explore
TelegramX
Closed
Finance

Will Walmart's earnings call mention gas, gasoline or fuel?

Which of the 16 words from Polymarket will Walmart executives say out loud?
Started Aug 19, 2026 • 3:30 PM EDT · Updated
Will Walmart's earnings call mention gas, gasoline or fuel?
9:03 AM EDTAug 20, 2026
The two words that never came

The call is over.

'Competition' and 'competitor' finished at zero. Furner said "significant competitive advantage" once, which is not the word needed to settle the contract. Walmart used one of the two words on each of the last three calls, six times, twice, and once, and today it used neither.

'Affordable' also finished at zero, which makes it three quarters out of four.

Lastly, 'Million' and 'billion' finished on 6 against a contract that needed 8 mentions.

8:51 AM EDTAug 20, 2026
Prescription clears on three words

David Guggina, on health and wellness: "Prescription volumes continue to grow."

Said once across the last three calls before today, and said once again today. At 33.5 cents this morning, it paid 199%.

8:38 AM EDTAug 20, 2026
An analyst says 'gas'

Simeon Gutman of Morgan Stanley asks whether "this environment with gas prices" has weighed further on the lower-income consumer.

The rules count anyone on the line, analysts included. Rainey answers with fuel prices going "above $4" and a psychological effect on shoppers in June.

8:26 AM EDTAug 20, 2026
Guidance is up

Enterprise sales up 5% in constant currency, at the top of guidance.

Adjusted operating income up over 17%, of which roughly 7.5% is the tariff refund.

Full-year EPS guidance raised to $2.80-$2.87, while Q3's operating income growth guidance is 2%-4%.

8:24 AM EDTAug 20, 2026
'Fuel' is now the largest new line in the guidance

Rainey says Walmart expects more than $2 billion of incremental fuel-related costs this year, above the original assumption, and that the outlook assumes fuel stays where it is.

He says it again in the next breath, raising guidance "in the face of more than $2 billion of incremental cost tied to higher fuel prices."

8:16 AM EDTAug 20, 2026
The word 'fuel' cleared

John David Rainey, 30 seconds into his prepared remarks, said: "Walmart U.S. net sales increased 3.5%, including a comp sales increase ex fuel of 2.6%."

'Fuel' contract jumped from 92 cents to 100 cents.

8:09 AM EDTAug 20, 2026
Pharmacy clears at 39 cents

Furner listed the word 'Pharmacy' in a sentence about what goes into a fast-delivery basket: "pharmacy, fresh, frozen, fashion, and general merchandise."

That was the cheapest contract on the board that had already cleared two of the last three calls.

It paid a whopping 156%.

8:07 AM EDTAug 20, 2026
Nine contracts resolved and the call is seven minutes old

'Tariff' is in on the receipt of the refunds.

'Omnichannel' is in on "serving customers and members as an omnichannel retailer."

'Rollback' is also in on 11,000 of them in the quarter, against 7,200 at the end of Q1.

All nine of the contracts that have cleared were priced above 75 cents this morning.

8:04 AM EDTAug 20, 2026
Four contracts gone inside two minutes

'Customer' was cleared in the opening sentence. 'Retail', 'Marketplace', and 'membership' were all cleared inside a single clause: "a strong retail foundation alongside faster-growing businesses like Marketplace, advertising, and membership."

'China' and 'India' landed a minute later on the international comp. That contract needs 8 mentions, and it now has 2.

8:00 AM EDTAug 20, 2026
The call begins

The call is live. Steph Wissink reads the safe harbor and hands it to John Furner.

3:31 PM EDTAug 19, 2026
The last three transcripts settle most of the board

Walmart publishes a corrected transcript of every call, which makes most of this board a counting exercise.

'Customer' has appeared 61, 65, and 67 times in the last three quarters against a contract that needs 40.

'Marketplace', 'membership', 'tariff', 'rollback', 'omnichannel', 'retail' and 'automation' have each cleared in all three. The board prices that certainty at between 75.5 and 98.8 cents, so there is very little left in it either way.

3:30 PM EDTAug 19, 2026
A 16-word market with $3,879 of liquidity behind it

Walmart's Q2 call is at 8:00 AM ET Thursday, and the words market on it is thin. Polymarket lists 16 contracts with only $3,879 of liquidity between them.

Several of the books are basically unusable. For example, 'Retail' is 54 bid at 97 offered. 'Customer 40+ times' is 42 bid at 95. 'Pharmacy' is 2 bid at 76.

Real-time alerts badge
Predictbook PRO
Track whales & arbitrage
Real-time alerts on Telegram.
See how it works Track whales & arbitrage
Real-time alerts graph