LIVE: Will Home Depot beat Q2 2026 earnings?

Project 10+ times traded at 52.5% and resolved on the 10th mention by our count, which arrived late, from Michael Rowe in the last question of the call, talking about the project planning tool for Pros.

Build was 50.5% and cleared in the same answer, on Pros building material lists with the AI-powered builder.

Inflation at 66.5% is quite interesting because management never used the word. Kate McShane of Goldman did, asking how much of the ticket came from same-SKU inflation. Polymarket counts if the word is said by anyone during the call, thus the contract resolved Yes.

Storm at 83% and weather at 80% cleared the same way, off Chris Horvers asking about weather and Billy Bastek answering with the one week of national heat that fell in June last year and in July this year.

There is a second Home Depot market running today. Polymarket lists 16 contracts on what gets said out loud during the call, with $18K of liquidity behind them, resolved off the audio.

15 of the 16 landed Yes. Tariff was priced at 99.5% and got said within 20 minutes. Volatility at 99.45%, lumber at 99.5%, customer 20+ times at 98.7%, quarter 15+ times at 97.6%, innovation at 95.5%, all of them cleared, most of them inside the prepared remarks.

The one that resolved No was Revenue, priced at 10.5%. The word revenue just never came up once in 90 minutes.

Home Depot reaffirmed fiscal 2026 line by line: comps flat to +2%, total sales growth of 2.5% to 4.5%, gross margin around 33.1%, adjusted operating margin of 12.8% to 13.0%, and adjusted EPS growth flat to +4% off the $14.69 base.

So, basically the company is telling you the Q2 was the high-water mark, since gross margin of 33.7% and adjusted operating margin of 14.7% both sit above the annual numbers, partly because spring is the seasonal peak and partly because of the refund.

Half the year is now on the board at $8.35, being May's $3.43 plus this morning's $4.92, against $8.24 for the same half last year, which is growth of 1.3%. To land inside the guide, the back half has to produce between $6.34 and $6.93 against last year's $6.46, and McPhail said the refund benefit gets handed back across Q3, with Q4 gross margin landing roughly flat year over year.

Home Depot received $730 million in IEEPA tariff refunds around the end of June, and $685 million of that ran straight through cost of goods sold in the quarter, which Richard McPhail sized on the call at roughly 1.45% of gross margin.

Gross margin printed at 33.7%, up 0.25% year over year.

Adjusted diluted EPS came in at $4.92 against a strike of $4.73. The board settled on Yes, a whopping 31.57% return for holders.

GAAP diluted EPS was $4.79 against $4.58 a year ago. Sales were $47.9bn, up 5.7% and ahead of the $47bn Wall Street projected. Comparable sales ran +1.7% with the US at +1.3%, inside a full-year guide of flat to +2%.

Home Depot reports Q2 2026 results at 6:00 am Eastern, and Polymarket's contract on the print settles 15 minutes later, three hours before anyone gets on the call. Adjusted diluted EPS above $4.73 pays Yes. Anything at or below, including $4.73, pays No.

Home Depot missed its earnings by $0.04 in May 2025, $0.03 in August 2025, and $0.11 in November 2025.

The Street's $4.73 for the current quarter is $4.68 plus 1.1 percent, which is management's own guidance band written down as an estimate. The question is whether Home Depot will hit it.