LIVE: What will Kevin Warsh say during the September Fed press conference?

Warsh concluded the press conference.

Only 6 of the 21 words were settled: Good day, AI, Productivity, Projection, Pressure, Anchored.

When asked about warnings from AI leaders, he finally says it. "I've spent a lot of time thinking about AI," then "we care very much about what's happening in artificial intelligence." The Fed has a task force on it reporting by the end of the year, though he says the risk decisions belong to other parts of government.

Two reporters attempt to prompt Warsh to discuss Trump, first regarding his proposals for cuts and then concerning the trade risk linked to rates. Both get basically the same answer. "I've got nothing for you on a discussion with the president," then "I'm not a Wall Street newsletter. Part of the independence of the Federal Reserve is we stay in our lane. Independence is a two-way street."

The Trump contract requires him to state the name, but he has not yet done so.

Fox Business puts it to him that markets priced in a 90% chance of a hike. "Sometimes the market tries to prejudge our outcomes. I'll observe market prices and see what they have to say, but today was our decision."

When asked whether a first hike usually means a sequence: "I'm not in the forward guidance business." He calls today's move sober, serious, and responsible, and declines to prejudge anything after it.

When asked how quarter-point shifts affect energy supply, he says. "We cannot affect any individual price, whether it be oil prices, whether it be foodstuffs at the grocery store." What the Fed can do is stop relative price changes from broadening out.

Warsh, on his recent travels: "Most advanced economies are facing price pressures." The word "Pressure" was trading at 25 cents just before he mentioned it. This was a 4x return, an even better return than the one from the word "Anchored".

"This afternoon, you also received the summary of economic projections." The word "Projection" settles at 83.5 cents. Warsh read the projection:

• Real GDP: 2.3% this year, 2.4% next
• Total PCE inflation: 3.7% this year, 2.3% next
• Unemployment: about 4.1%
• Fed funds: 4.1% at the end of this year, and again next year
• Inflation risks to the upside, labor risks roughly balanced

"Inflation compensation in market prices stays low, and inflation expectations remain well anchored."

Anchored is a word he had not used once in either of his first two press conferences.

This contract paid traders a solid 3x, from 32.5 cents.

"I would be hard-pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive." He says the committee agreed, and that is the justification: "So we removed a dose of accommodation."

"Domestic spending has been resilient, productivity growth strong, and capital investment is robust." That settles Productivity at 89.5 cents before he has finished his opening paragraph.

Warsh is speaking. He opens with "Good day" and settles the 91-cent contract.

The FOMC raises the target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4%. The vote is unanimous. Warsh speaks in half an hour.

Warsh became Chairman on May 22 and has held two press conferences on June 17 and July 29. Here's what he said and how many times during them:

• Inflation: 19, then 24
• Task force: 25, then 5
• AI or artificial intelligence: 6, then 4
• Productivity: 5, then 3
• Balance sheet: 5, then 2
• Projection: 4, then 0
• Echo: 3, then 2
• Bet: 2, then 1, both times as "you bet"
• Dissent: 0, then 1
• Software, luck, pandemic, scenario: one mention each across the two
• Labor force, pressure, anchored, gas, Trump, good afternoon: zero and zero

Kevin Warsh holds his third press conference as Chairman of the Federal Reserve at 2:30 PM ET, half an hour after the FOMC announces its rate decision. Polymarket runs 21 contracts on what he says while he is standing there. The favorites are:

• Good day: 91 cents
• AI or artificial intelligence: 90.5 cents
• Productivity: 89.5 cents
• Balance sheet: 87 cents
• Projection: 83.5 cents
• Inflation, 20 or more times: 78.5 cents
• Bet or betting: 66 cents