LIVE: What will Cisco say during their Q4 FY26 earnings call?

Yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times (61 times), Quarter 10+ times (34 times), Fiscal 10+ times (14 times), Growth (61 times), Chip (1 time), China, Europe, Capacity, Tariff, and World Cup.

No: Income 10+ times, China, Europe, Capacity, Tariff, and World Cup.

We predicted 3 out of 4 in update 2. Europe, China, and World Cup all resolved to No, but Chip resolved to Yes.

"In terms of the price increases, as you look at the impact on the financials, it was about 5 points in terms of top-line revenue growth that we saw in Q4."

Roughly 5 of the 18 points of Q4 growth were price, not volume. Cisco is passing memory inflation through to customers, and it is arriving in the numbers as growth. He also disclosed a $500m investment in Nanya, the Taiwanese DRAM maker, and said Wi-Fi 7 redesigns cut memory utilization by half within 90 days.

Meanwhile, the Polymarket board is settling by exhaustion. China has not been mentioned. 9 analysts have now asked questions about hyperscalers, supply chain, TSMC, gross margin, and enterprise budgets, and not one of them has said the word China, while the entire silicon supply chain runs through Taiwan.

That is $3.5bn to $4.5bn of revenue above consensus and about 15% growth against the street's 9%.

Q&A opens.

Fiscal clears 10, exactly as we argued it would, because Patterson walks through 2 periods of results and 2 periods of guidance in 1 section. It finishes at 14, well under the 37 the last year-end call produced, but the bucket only needed 10 anyway.

And the Europe thesis we had is also holding up quite well. Patterson has just given the geographic split: "the Americas up 44%, EMEA up 25%, and APJC up 19%." EMEA is not Europe. That is the second EMEA of the call, and the word Europe has still not been said once.

Capacity has not been said either. Tariff has not been said once, which, on a call that spent five minutes on memory costs and price increases, is genuinely surprising.

Quarter clears 10 on the back of the 8th consecutive quarter of double-digit networking growth.

Growth is long resolved and running hot.

And a word that is not on the board has now appeared three times: Mythos. Robbins is using it alongside AI and quantum as one of three things customers must be "ready" for, tied to "last day of support footprint, products that can't be patched."

"we have line of sight to multiple AI design wins expected over the next six months across our G300, G200, and P200 Silicon One chip designs, as well as for optics."

It’s the only time when the word “chip” appears during Cisco’s earnings call. The team never mentioned this word in previous calls.

Quarter and Growth are both live inside the first 90 seconds. AI lands in the third sentence, on "the increasingly critical role our technology has in the AI era."

Nothing has resolved yet. Quarter and AI both need 10.

Hyperscaler AI infrastructure orders were $4bn in the quarter and $9.3bn for the year, roughly 4.5 times fiscal 2025. Acacia took over $1bn of orders on its own.

The one soft line: non-GAAP gross margin 66.3%, down 210 basis points, on hardware mix and memory costs.

The stock closed at $123.88, up 2.86%, and popped on the print.

The call starts in 24 minutes.

China at 49.5 was mentioned 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, and 0 times across the last 6 calls.

Chip at 50.5 cents was mentioned 0 times on the most recent call after years of Silicon One mentions.

And World Cup at 11 cents is a bucket for a sponsorship that does not exist. Cisco is not a FIFA partner. The technology partner was Lenovo. World Cup has appeared 0 times in 6 calls, plus the tournament ended July 19.

AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times, Income 10+ times, Quarter 10+ times, Fiscal 10+ times, Growth, Chip, China, Europe, Capacity, Tariff, and World Cup.

The top of the board is barely a question. Quarter 10+ times at 99.45 cents has a 6-call floor of 34. AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times at 99 has a floor of 50 and a ceiling of 82. Fiscal 10+ times at 96 cents has cleared on all 6 recent calls, and on the last year-end call, the direct comparable for tonight, it hit 37, because the CFO walks through 2 periods of results and 2 periods of guidance in one section.

Consensus is $1.17 on about $16.8bn.

Options price in an 8.2% move.