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JD Vance finished his speech. About half of the words from Kalshi's board were mentioned: fraud, small business, affordable, tax on tips and overtime, invest, manufacturing, Democrat, Biden, election, California, barbecue, healthcare.
"Making sure that moms and children from every walk of life were safe and had the healthcare that they need."
"He told his congregation in the great state of Kansas, one of the barbecue capitals of the world, that they need to atone for eating meat."
"She says that Kansas should learn from the California model."
"That's how we have to understand this election coming up in November."
JD Vance talked about how home prices are doubling under Biden, rents are falling for the first time in five years, and homicides are at a 126-year low.
Illegal immigrants, illegals, foreign illegal nationals, unvetted foreigners, entered the country illegally. JD Vance mentioned almost every possible phrase or word, but he never mentioned the one that was in the Kalshi contract: "Illegal alien".
"What any highly dangerous wanted criminal did during the Biden years, he got a first class ticket to the United States of America."
"Remember, Democrats invited millions of illegal immigrants to take over your communities."
"There's going to be more demand for metal cutting and painting and machine tools." He also closes the entire reshoring section without saying tariff or China once.
"About 60,000 of those new jobs are in American manufacturing."
When discussing Braden Lewis, a 23-year-old paint department employee, Vance refers to his 50% raise in eighteen months as the American story, and then as an all-American success story. However, he never uses the phrase “American Dream.”
"Protect the companies that invest in you rather than ship good American jobs overseas."
"It was because of Roger Marshall that we ended taxes on tips, on overtime, and on social security." "Taxes on Tips / Taxes on Overtime" was one of the five biggest contracts on the board, and now it's settled.
"Bring down out of control credit card swipe fees, which is going to make life affordable for everyday Kansans."
JD Vance mentions Kansas workers, American workers, and the workers of the great state of Kansas. But he never says "Working Class / Middle Class" to resolve the contract. Maybe the phrase will be mentioned later.
"You have no idea on both the fraud task force and on supporting our small businesses, we have a great fighter in Kelly Loeffler."
He opens with a Chiefs and Bengals joke. Nothing tradable.
25 words and phrases are trading on Kalshi ahead of JD Vance's speech today, plus the usual "event does not qualify" backstop. He is speaking at a worker-owned metal fabrication shop in suburban Kansas City, so traders have priced it the way you would expect: "Manufacturing" at 85 cents, "Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime" at 80 cents.
