LIVELIVE: The Strait of Hormuz deal
The arrangement being drafted does not open the strait. It's just that inbound ships take a northern lane through Iranian waters, while outbound ships take a southern lane through Omani waters, and the median lane stays shut until the mines are cleared, which the parties would work to do within 30 days, so by September 5, if the deal is signed today.
Per the reported terms, no tolls are charged during the arrangement's first 60 days. If they announce it today, then that window closes on October 5.
On the fee contract, August 31 costs 10.5 cents. October 31 costs 35. December 31 costs 47.5.
The jump happens exactly where the free period expires.
Trump's position on Tuesday was four words: "I'm not going to let them charge."
At the same time, Iran's position, from a lawmaker this morning, was that "the decision-maker regarding the Strait of Hormuz is the Islamic Republic of Iran."
The next round of US-Iran peace talks costs 0.45 cents for August 7.
The first round concluded in Switzerland on June 22 with a reported roadmap toward a final deal. There has not been a second. August 15 costs 20.5 cents, August 31 costs 53.5, and September 30 costs 76, on $8 million of volume.
So, Polymarket traders are simultaneously saying there is a 47% chance Washington and Tehran jointly accept a Hormuz document within 9 days, and a 20.5% chance their senior representatives sit in a room together in the same window.
One of those two numbers is wrong.
Every rung of Iran successfully targets shipping collapsed overnight. September 30 went from 76 cents to 56. August 31 from 53.5 to 40. August 16 from 47 to 33. August 9 from 34.5 to 19.5.
That is a 20-cent fall on the far rung and 13.5 to 15 on the rest, and it is the largest coordinated move on any Iranian market today, larger than anything the two agreement contracts did.
The contract counts a kinetic strike on a commercial ship, or the seizure of one, by Iranian forces. Proxy attacks by the Houthis or Hezbollah are excluded by name, and so are attacks on military vessels. A missile that gets intercepted still counts as an attempt.
Both agreement contracts carry the same clause.
A statement that references ongoing negotiations, or a prospective agreement, or that expresses support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of it, does not qualify. The announcement has to be declarative.
Iran's spokesman said the coordinates "have been agreed upon" and the joint statement is "in the final review and drafting stage." So, basically he is describing a document that does not exist yet.
It is also why the Iran-Oman contract is 91.5 and not 99, with a government that has already said the substance is settled. The market is pricing the gap between the agreement and the announcement.
Trump said the announcement would come Tuesday or Wednesday. It did not. Iran's foreign ministry says the route coordinates are agreed, and the joint statement is in final drafting.
Polymarket has two separate contracts for it.
The Iran-Oman agreement costs 91.5 cents for August 15.
And the US-Iran agreement costs 47, and it fell 20.5 cents this morning.
The first needs Tehran and Muscat to accept the same document. The second needs Washington and Tehran to accept one, and per the reported terms, the document being drafted has Oman's name on it, not America's.
Although the biggest single position on the whole board is completely elsewhere. $2 million sits on whether the United States announces an end to its naval blockade of Iran by tomorrow. It costs 33.2 cents.
