Will Trump and Iran sign a deal before the end of 2026?

In June, the United States and Iran signed a 14-point memorandum meant to end the war that began in February. It included two major promises: a reconstruction fund of at least $300 billion for Iran and a plan to reduce the strength of Iran’s enriched uranium under UN supervision.

Polymarket created six separate bets on whether promises from the memorandum would appear in a final US-Iran agreement by the end of 2026. The reconstruction fund trades at about 11 cents, while the five uranium contracts trade between 7 and 10 cents.

Each bet requires the promise to be fully agreed upon and included in a final deal. A promise to create a plan later does not count.

This is extremely important because the June memorandum did not finalize either issue. It said the two sides would develop a plan for the reconstruction fund. It also said they would later agree on how to handle Iran’s enriched uranium. In other words, both points described future negotiations rather than finished agreements.

So, the memorandum was only a starting point and not the final deal needed for the bets to pay out.

The document also began falling apart almost immediately. The day after it was signed, the vice president said Gulf countries would provide the reconstruction money. President Trump then said the United States would not invest and had not pressured anyone to contribute.

The memorandum gave the two countries 60 days to negotiate a full agreement, but that deadline passed on August 17 without a deal. The situation then became more dangerous as US aircraft struck an Iranian island on August 30, Iran fired at least eight missiles at two air bases in Jordan the next day, and two oil tankers were hit off Oman.

The market gives the countries only 120 days to create and sign a new treaty from scratch. The last comparable agreement took 20 months to complete. That is why we are buying the 'No' 'Iran Reconstruction Funding' contract at 90 cents to capture an 11.11% return.