Will Atlético Madrid sell Julián Álvarez before September?
What is a player actually worth to a club that will not sell him at any price and cannot replace him either?
Atlético Madrid opened the Spanish league on Wednesday with a 2-0 win over Málaga, and Julián Álvarez was not in the squad. He was not even benched. Polymarket's Álvarez transfer market charges 89.7 cents at the offer for him still being an Atlético player when the window shuts, which pays 11.5% in 12 days.
The market resolves to the next club Álvarez officially joins by 11:59 PM New York time on September 1. If nobody signs him, it resolves to Atlético Madrid. The Spanish window closes six hours before that, and the English one a minute later, so there is no gap for a late announcement to fall through.
Álvarez asked to leave in June, out loud, during the World Cup. "I want to fulfill my dream," he told Radio La Red in Argentina, and said a transfer was the best thing for his future. Barcelona offered about €100m, but Atlético said no.
Then Atlético's chief executive, Miguel Ángel Gil Marín, sat in front of a camera in July and said the club would refuse €150m and €200m as well. "We do not want to sell Julián Álvarez, and we are not going to sell him. Stop insisting." The contract runs to 2030, and the buyout clause on it is reported at €500m.
Atlético also went to FIFA and the Spanish federation, accusing Barcelona of approaching the player illegally. Clubs rarely sell to a club they are prosecuting.
Barcelona have since spent the budget on Rodri from Manchester City, Anthony Gordon from Newcastle and Karim Adeyemi from Dortmund. Matteo Moretto reported on August 6 that Barcelona now consider the deal impossible and have gone looking at other forwards. Diego Simeone, asked about it on August 18, said that when the owner has spoken that plainly, "case dismissed".
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