Who takes the Dota 2 world championship trophy home from Shanghai?

The International returned to China this month, with 16 teams at the Oriental Sports Center in Shanghai from 13 August. The prize pool started at Valve's $1.6m and had climbed past $2.9m on supporter-pack sales by the opening day, 30% of which goes into the pot. That is a rounding error compared to the $40m in 2021, and it is the first time the number has increased since Valve retired the Battle Pass.

Eight teams are left, and the playoffs begin tomorrow.

The rule that decides how to trade this is that Shanghai runs a double-elimination bracket. Each of the eight has to lose twice to go home. The Counter-Strike final on the same Sunday is single-elimination.

Team Vision went 4-0 through the group stage, the best record in Shanghai. Three weeks ago they were PARIVISION, and they changed the name because Valve required the teams carrying bookmaker branding to change theirs. Under the old name, they won the Esports World Cup in July, beating BetBoom 3-1 for $750,000, and DreamLeague Season 29 in May. Puppey, who captained Na'Vi to the first International in 2011, took over as their coach in January. Their carry, Satanic, is just 18 years old.

Behind them sit the three teams in this bracket that have actually won the thing. Team Spirit in 2021 and 2023. Team Liquid in 2017 and 2024. And lastly, Team Falcons last year.

Those four cost 82 cents on Polymarket, and only one of them pays a dollar on Sunday. The strategy here is identical to the one we employed in our earlier Counter-Strike analysis. Instead of taking a gamble and selecting a single name, why not opt for the top four names and profit regardless? That’s precisely what we’re doing.