The safest political bet on the board belongs to a man who stopped flying
Xi Jinping has taken one foreign trip in 2026, to Pyongyang in June, and traders are 95% sure he lands in Washington before the year ends
On the evening of May 14, in the Great Hall of the People, Trump stood up mid-banquet and said this: "Tonight, it is my honor to extend an invitation to you and Madam Peng to visit us at the White House on September 24."
Wang Yi confirmed it through Xinhua the next morning. The White House put it in a fact sheet 3 days later, and Trump repeated the date on July 23.
Polymarket's market on Xi visiting America before 2027 trades at 95 cents, with over $240K of open interest still on it.
The rule is quite simple. Yes, if Xi "physically enters the terrestrial or maritime territory" of the United States. Flying over is explicitly excluded.
So there are 2 dated chances.
- September 24 at the White House, 41 days away
- December 14 and 15, the G20 at Trump National Doral in Miami
For the no side to pay, both have to fail. And every announced Xi trip to America has gone ahead: 2012, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2023. Not one cancellation on record.
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