The safest 8% on the board is a war nobody has dated

Last Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, Romanian jets shot down Russian drones over Romania. As a result, Bucharest expelled a Russian diplomat and recalled its own ambassador from Moscow. Polymarket's market on whether Russia invades NATO before New Year printed 7.5 cents before it happened and 7.5 cents after. Here's why we are betting against it to capture about 8% by December 31.

To settle yes, Russia has to start a military operation meant to take a piece of NATO land and keep it. The rules name Crimea in 2014 as the model.

Nothing on this list has counted so far:

• 21 Russian drones flew into Poland last September, and four were shot down. Poland invoked Article 4.
• Three armed Russian fighters spent 12 minutes over Estonia. Estonia invoked Article 4.
• A Russian drone hit an apartment building in Galați in May and hurt two people, the first civilians hurt on NATO soil in this war.
• In December, three Russian border guards crossed into Estonia by hovercraft, walked along a breakwater for about 20 minutes and went home.

Europe's own intelligence services keep naming years that are not 2026:

• Germany's most senior soldier said in May that everything points to 2029.
• Estonia's foreign intelligence service said in February that Russia has no intention of attacking.
• Poland's foreign minister said this month that Putin does not have the means.

Moscow says the same thing about itself. Its foreign ministry stated this month that Russia has no plans to attack NATO and is open to dialogue, and Putin has called the idea nonsense on the record.

One should also consider that NATO is 32 countries bound to defend one another, so taking and holding any part of it means one war against all 32 at once, while Russia gained 31 square miles in Ukraine across the whole of June and still cannot take Kostyantynivka.

All of this is exactly why, at 7.5 cents, the contract looks like a decent opportunity.