Traders keep buying a Grok 4.6 launch date Musk keeps moving
Elon Musk has announced three release dates for Grok 4.6 since July 24, but none of them have materialized
On Monday, a model string called Cursor Grok 4.6 Fast appeared briefly inside the Cursor code editor, then vanished without ever answering a prompt. Polymarket's Grok 4.6 release market treated the sighting as a schedule. The August 14 contract costs 83.5 cents, so we are betting that the model releases by Friday to capture about 20%. Here's why.
The case for Friday is Elon Musk's word:
- On July 24, Musk posted Grok 4.6 in 2 weeks, which meant August 7
- On July 27, he wrote that the model, 1.5 trillion parameters with improved training, would be released around August 7
- On the August 4 SpaceX earnings call, he said it was probably next week
On top of this, xAI can truly move fast. Grok 2 shipped six days after its announcement in 2024, and Monday's leak plus Musk saying this week does look like a company in final testing. However, the rules pay only for a model the general public can use, with closed beta and private access excluded, and the company's own record says sightings come first. Grok 4.5 was live for Cursor users in early July and did not reach the public apps until July 22, a two-week gap between the leak and the thing this market pays on.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
