The best AI model bet returns 9% in just seven days
Nine points of Elo separate the model people are betting on from the model that is actually in first place
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Anthropic released Claude Opus 5 on July 24, and it went straight to first place on the arena.ai text leaderboard. Polymarket's best AI model market sent Other to nearly 94.4 cents, and it has barely come down. At the time of writing this, Other costs 91.7 cents, a return of about 9% by August 10.
The rules name one table, the arena.ai Text Arena overall board with style control switched off. Whichever model is ranked first there wins. There are only three models that carry their own contract in this market: claude-opus-4-6-thinking, claude-opus-4-6, and claude-fable-5. Anything else that finishes first pays Other.
There are a few reasons why this market still looks attractive:
- Anthropic holds the top seven, led by claude-opus-5-max on 1512, with claude-opus-4-6-thinking third on 1503
- 13 frontier models have shipped since June 9, and none has taken first place from Anthropic
- inkling-small and three OpenAI models joined the arena last week, and all four settle as Other
- Even if Anthropic releases a new model this week, which is unlikely, for example, Opus 5.1, it will also settle as Other
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
