Starship's next flight is priced for a record it never set
The August contract on this board needs a 38-day turnaround, and SpaceX has managed that once in 12 attempts
Elon Musk said on July 25 that SpaceX will catch the ship with the tower on the next Starship flight. Polymarket's Starship Flight 14 market prices a 27% probability for that flight happening before. Total volume across the whole event is $13,323.
Flight 13 flew on July 24. An August 31 launch means a 38-day turnaround.
SpaceX has done that only once. The gap between Flight 5 in October 2024 and Flight 6 that November was 37 days, and it is the only one of the program's 12 completed gaps that comes in under 38. The average is 99 days. The median is 84.
Additionally:
- Flight 13's booster came down with only five of 13 engines still firing and destroyed itself in the Gulf
- SpaceX said before Flight 12 that it will not attempt a catch with a brand new booster design, and both V3 boosters flown since have ended up destroyed
- The FAA grounded Starship in May after ruling Booster 19's flight a mishap, and cleared it again in mid-July
- Musk targeted mid-March for Flight 12, and it flew on May 22
- Booster 21 and Ship 41 have both passed cryogenic testing, which is genuinely ahead of schedule
No date has been announced yet, although NASASpaceflight's own estimate is late August through early September. But that estimate is not worth 92 cents on the September contract, because SpaceX's program slips are measured in weeks, and it does not deserve to be bought on a three-week cushion.
Which is why we are taking the safest line on the board instead. Betting yes on October 31 pays 4.17% in 87 days, or about 19% annualized.
October 31 is 99 days after Flight 13. 8 of the program's 12 gaps have been shorter than that.
The four that were not:
- Flight 1 destroyed its own launch pad and cost 212 days
- Flight 11 to Flight 12 cost 221 days when the FAA grounded the vehicle, and SpaceX swapped it from V2 to V3 at the same time
- The other two, at 117 and 129 days, are both from 2023 and 2024, before SpaceX had any cadence at all
If we narrow it to the 8 flights since October 2024, only one gap has cleared 99 days, and that one was the FAA grounding.
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