Russia is arranging a bailout for its Amazon

Wildberries is Russia's Amazon. It sold 6.1 trillion rubles of goods last year, about $67bn, and it takes roughly 45 cents of every ruble Russians spend online. Since mid July, Ukrainian drones have hit at least 20 of its warehouses and destroyed 1.2 million square meters of them. Ukraine says the company supplies the Russian military, but the company denies it. Nonetheless, Polymarket's Wildberries bankruptcy market charges 17 cents for a bankruptcy filing before 2027. We think the other side of that is much more lucrative at 83 cents for a 20.5% return by December 31.

So, what has to happen according to the rules? Wildberries, or a company tied to it, has to announce its bankruptcy by filing. Quite simple.

However, look at what is happening instead:

• Russia's government is weighing loans from state banks, tax breaks and subsidies
• VTB, the state bank leading that effort, already owns 5% of the retailer's own bank
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the talks happened and no decision has been made
• Wildberries froze loan repayments for damaged sellers until October and started paying about 88,000 of them
• Days before the first strike, it had rewritten its seller contract to exclude drone and missile damage

The ones that will potentially file for bankruptcy are, unfortunately, the sellers on the platform, but not the platform itself. The facts contradict the traders' bias, who are betting on a “yes” outcome in this market.