Nobody can decide whether Hamas has already agreed to disarm

On July 30, Donald Trump posted that his Board of Peace had reached "a HISTORIC agreement for the COMPLETE DISARMAMENT of Hamas." Polymarket's Hamas disarmament market had closed the previous session at 16.5 cents. The next day it printed 83.5. However, this morning it costs 46.5. Why?

At 05:09 AM UTC on July 31, a wallet posted a $500 bond to UMA's optimistic oracle proposing that the market resolve yes. The challenge window is two hours. With 64 seconds left, another wallet disputed it. The adapter reset the question, and 21 seconds later a different wallet proposed yes again. 8 minutes after that, the same disputer disputed again, which escalates the whole thing to a token-holder vote.

Then, at 3:45 PM Eastern, Polymarket published a clarification on chain:

"On July 30, 2026, Hamas agreed to the Board of Peace roadmap, which includes a commitment to disarm sequenced with Israeli commitments. As of the time of this clarification, Israel has not agreed to that roadmap. Absent agreement by all relevant parties, Hamas's commitment to disarm is contingent, does not constitute a formal policy announcement, and therefore does not qualify."

Israel is not mentioned anywhere in the market's published rules. The rules ask what Hamas announces.

• The rules disqualify "plans contingent on future conditions," and Article 3 of the roadmap makes every phase contingent on verified completion of the last one, so the contingency is the architecture rather than a Hamas loophole
• The operative text says decommission and store, with weapons going to a Palestinian committee, and Hamas has spent a year declining to say surrender
• On August 3, the UMA vote settled both proposals to the protocol's "too early" value, meaning the question could not yet be answered, and both proposers lost their bonds
• Nobody has proposed a price since, and an unanswered oracle request has been sitting on Polygon for a week
• Five earlier rungs, from November 2025 to June 2026, all resolved no on identical wording, carrying $2,088,035 between them

Plus, if one reads the clarification, then it makes this a market all about Netanyahu now. And he rejected the document on Sunday, saying "We are talking about real disarmament, not fictitious disarmament" and that "Israel rejects the 15-point document."

The problem is that Hamas will not give up its weapons until Israel leaves Gaza. At the same time, Israel will not leave Gaza until Hamas gives up its weapons.

So, we believe Israel will not withdraw from Gaza. It simply does not serve its geopolitical interests to do so. Therefore, no at 55 cents is the logical choice to capture 82% by New Year's Eve.