Netflix is premiering GTA 6 without saying how long it runs

Rockstar Games has published one video longer than 5 minutes in the last 8 years. It was the Red Dead Redemption 2 gameplay reveal in August 2018, and it ran 6 minutes and 6 seconds. Polymarket's Extended Look market charges 31 cents this morning for the August 27 Netflix premiere running at least 30 minutes.

30 minutes would be 5x anything Rockstar has ever made.

• Grand Theft Auto VI trailer one ran 90 seconds, and trailer two ran 167
• The GTA V gameplay video, the closest historical analog, ran 4 minutes 50 seconds and landed 70 days before launch
• Red Dead's video ran 6:06 and landed 78 days out, against 84 days for August 27
• A YouTube search of the Rockstar Games channel filtered to videos over 20 minutes returns nothing
• The announce teaser Rockstar posted on Thursday ran 25 seconds

Single-game publisher deep dives run about 20 minutes, and, for example, the Ghost of Yotei State of Play was sold as "nearly 20 minutes of gameplay". Full platform showcases run longer: Nintendo's general Directs average 40 minutes 35 seconds, the Starfield Direct ran 45, and Xbox's Developer_Direct ran 48.

Strauss Zelnick told Bloomberg on Friday that the thing will feel like watching a Netflix show. There were also 2 unofficial runtime figures that both surfaced on August 6. One is 20 minutes, from a Netflix support agent who Vice noted may have been a chatbot. The other is 30 minutes and 5 seconds, from a progress bar users reported in the Netflix app, and it traces to a single outlet that calls it a possible placeholder.

We don’t believe Netflix would have premiered a GTA VI video if it was shorter than 15 minutes. Which is why the trade is yes on 15+ minutes and yes on 30+ minutes at 87 and 31 cents, respectively, paying 15% and 223% in 17 days.