Most people now say Hormuz won’t reopen in 2026

The Strait of Hormuz carried 20.9 million barrels of oil a day until March, roughly 20% of everything the world burns and 25% of all the oil that moves by sea. The most recent count IMF Portwatch has published puts traffic through it at a 7-day average of 3.86 ships. Polymarket's Hormuz market asks which month that returns to normal, and betting against August costs 96.8 cents this morning. It pays a dollar on August 31, which is 3.3% in 21 days and about 76% a year.

Normal, for this contract, means a seven-day average of 60 arrivals. That is 420 ships in a week. Last week the strait took 27.

• The last time the average touched 60 was March 1, on the way down from a 7-year norm of roughly 75 a day
• The best week since then produced 187 arrivals, in the days after Trump and Pezeshkian signed at Versailles and CENTCOM lifted the blockade
• The highest average recorded since the collapse was 26.71, on June 30, and it lasted a single day
• Across every day Portwatch recorded before this year, 79% cleared 60, so the bar is ordinary
• 17 days this year have recorded no arrivals at all, the most recent on July 23

You would think that announcements do move that number, but no, they do not.

For example, Iran's foreign ministry announced a route agreement with Oman on August 5. By August 7, the deputy foreign minister was calling it temporary, putting it at 2-4 months, and saying it "does not mean the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz." On Saturday the Supreme National Security Council listed 6 conditions for reopening, the third of which is war reparations. On Monday the foreign minister repeated them. Oman has still not confirmed the agreement.

The same thing happened in April. Araghchi declared the strait open on Friday, April 17, and Trump called it completely open. Iran shut it again on Saturday, and April averaged 4.97 arrivals a day.

So, if these countries sort it out between each other, all is good? Unfortunately, no. Protection and indemnity cover was withdrawn on March 5, and war risk premiums now run at 7.5% to 10% of hull value, roughly $21m on a large tanker. Which is why so many are cautious and don't want to risk a multimillion-dollar ship.

Additionally, a signed deal would not fix this situation in 3 weeks. The contract settles on a 7-day average, so traffic has to be back to normal by August 31. The last time everything went right, with an agreement signed at Versailles and the blockade lifted, the strait's best week produced 187 ships against the 420 it needs.