Election markets favor Eisenkot as Israeli head to polls

Israelis are voting on October 27 in an election that could end Benjamin Netanyahu’s long tenure as prime minister. This comes after years of war and political division. However, a major question for prediction-market traders is who’ll secure enough support to form the next government, not just which party will win the most seats.

On October 27 at 15:00 UTC, on the next prime minister market, former Israel Defense Forces chief Gadi Eisenkot was trading at 63%. In comparison, Netanyahu is priced at 23% and is in second place. In third place, Naftali Bennett stands at 9%.

This market has accumulated approximately $60.27 million in trading volume by the time of writing, including over $3.5 million over the previous 24 hours.

Netanyahu’s supporters praise him for guiding Israel through multiple conflicts, but his critics blame him and his government for security failures. They also question the government’s handling of the wars and judicial independence, as well as military conscription.

On the other hand, Eisenkot and his supporters position the ex-Defense Forces chief as a candidate with a better approach to security and governance.

Coalition negotiations could take weeks

The NBC reported that 44.9% voted by 14:00 pm local time – the highest at that time since 1973.

Israel has a 120-seat Knesset that needs a government to secure the support of at least 61 lawmakers. Yet, according to the pre-election polling, neither Netanyahu’s nor the opposition’s bloc is guaranteed to reach that key threshold. This means that smaller parties and coalition partners could become crucial very fast. That said, these types of negotiations could take weeks.

Meanwhile, there’s another reason to treat the market lead with caution. A JTA report pointed to research suggesting that a small number of large accounts held substantial positions in the Netanyahu market. The researchers report that one account held 18% of the money backing Netanyahu, while seven accounts held 29% of the money betting against him.

Traders should keep this in mind because concentrated positions can make prices more vulnerable to individual traders’ activity, but this doesn’t indicate manipulation.

For now, with Eisenkot leading the market, traders are betting on a change in leadership.