How Ronaldo's wedding can pay you 54% by Saturday night
The entire market on Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding rests on one tabloid report that a cathedral in Funchal had been booked
The Sun reported last week that Cristiano Ronaldo and Georgina Rodriguez will marry at Funchal Cathedral in Madeira on Saturday. Polymarket built a 20-name guest list market around that date, closing on August 8. Sergio Ramos costs 35 cents, so betting against him turning up pays 54%. Volume is at$440,000.
Why are we betting against Ramos? Because Ronaldo did not go to Ramos's wedding.
In June 2019, Ramos married Pilar Rubio in Seville with David Beckham, Luka Modric, Roberto Carlos and Alvaro Morata in the pews. ESPN ran the story on where Cristiano Ronaldo was. They had played together for 9 years.
That is the closest thing this market has to evidence, because nothing else here is confirmed:
- Neither Ronaldo nor Rodriguez has confirmed the date, the venue, or one guest, per the Madeira reporting
- Ronaldo's sister Katia Aveiro told a Portuguese magazine there is no date set and that she will not be wearing a wedding dress this year
- The corroboration is a hotel telling guests two floors would be shut on Friday and Saturday
- The only named attendees at his 40th birthday in Riyadh last year were Rodriguez and his mother
- Guests at Ramos's wedding handed in their phones at the door
The contract does not pay for somebody being there, though. It pays for somebody being confirmed to have been there. This is a very important distinction. For example, Messi's wedding had 260 guests and the reporting named only 9.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
