How far can the WTI crude oil fall after hitting $100?

The WTI crude oil price recently rose to $100 amid Middle East tensions and uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict. 

Last week, Predictbook analyzed the possibility of the crude oil price hitting $100 after rallying to $98 and pulling back to $97. Odds for the contract on Polymarket were attractive at 58%, trading at $0.59 per share. 

Now odds for the WTI crude oil price to hit $95.00 are also attractive at 56%, trading, with one share of the contract going for $0.59 on Polymarket.

Why WTI crude oil could strike the $95 level before October 31

The primary determinant will likely be a continuation of the truce between the US and Iran — any signs of a possible deal would help stabilize oil prices, ahead of the next OPEC+ meeting on November 1. 

However, reports on Tuesday suggested that Iran may look to stall the deal with the US in a bid to hurt Trump politically ahead of the midterms on November 3. Earlier in October, Trump had promised to launch strikes on Iran until at least after the midterms.

While a stalemate will likely delay a deal, as long as the US does not strike Iran, oil prices will likely remain stable through October 31. This enhances the chances of hitting $95 in a technical pullback.

Another factor that could help bring oil prices lower is the Fed rate decision on October 28. With the Fed highly expected to keep the base interest rate capped at 4%, oil prices will likely face slight downward pressure if the decision is confirmed next week. 

Odds of a no-change decision are now at the highest level this month, hitting 93% after momentarily falling to 52% following the release of hotter-than-expected CPI data on October 14.