Are traders underpricing the chances of WTI crude oil hitting $100 in October?

The WTI crude oil price is rising fast after the latest Houthi attacks disrupted shipping in the Red Sea. Oil prices seemed destined for a pullback, or at least a stable period, after President Trump last week said he won't attack Iran before the mid-term elections are done. 

In Predictbook’s last coverage on this contract, we had a down move to $85 as the likely target compared to an up move to $95. Since then, $95 has been hit and opened a new target, this time a down move.

This primarily relates to Houthis launching a series of drone and missile attacks striking a terminal at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, forcing its closure. 

Shipping routes through the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have been affected, thus constraining oil supply.

Yet, with oil prices rising to within just $2 of hitting $100, Polymarket traders think WTI crude oil has less than a 60% chance of hitting the milestone. The oil price target contract for October on Polymarket has accumulated nearly $2.5 million in volume, with the $100 price target locking in just under $360k. 

On Friday morning, traders could buy yes contracts on WTI crude oil price hitting $100 in October 2026 at $0.59 per share, while a yes bet on a fall to $90, which had a 52% chance of happening and less than $26k in volume, was going for $0.53 per share. 

A slip to $95 is the most likely move for WTI crude oil according to traders on Polymarket, with a 94% chance, but just over $3k in volume has gone towards this contract.

Why the $100 price target could be the smart play

While WTI crude oil appears to be facing some resistance around the $97-$98 price range, shipping constraints and falling stocks could see it hit the milestone sooner than the resolution data of October 31, 2026.

In the latest US WTI crude inventories, the API weekly crude oil stock fell for the second successive week, down by 11.1 million barrels versus the preceding week’s decline of 2.1 million. The EIA crude oil stocks change for the week also declined for the second week in a row, falling by 8.557 million barrels. 

This further limits supply, adding to the challenges the market is already facing following Houthi attacks. 

The next OPEC+ meeting also comes on November 1 to evaluate production levels, which will depend on tensions heading into the meeting. The member states agreed on October 4 to keep the current production levels unchanged through November, and will decide what happens in December at the next meeting.