WTI crude oil price prediction as U.S. jobs fall in September

The WTI crude oil price pulled back significantly over the last two weeks after peaking above $106 on September 15th. As of this writing, it traded just above $89 ahead of the September US nonfarm payrolls.

Traders seem more convinced oil prices are likely to keep falling in October, with Polymarket giving it a 71% chance of hitting $85 by October 31 and nearly $44k volume locked in, compared with a 65% chance and just over $20k volume for a $95 target.

What factors could affect oil prices in October?

With diplomacy seemingly returning in the Middle East and oil supply constraints easing amid Trump and China interventions, oil prices have continued to fall over the last two weeks.

But that is not the only factor in play, at least in the short term.

Analysts expect the US net change in jobs to fall significantly from 162k in August to $90k in September. When expectations are skewed, even if the data is better than expected, chances are the number will still be lower than in August.

Weakening jobs numbers and subsequently lower energy demand force oil prices lower. This factor, however, is likely to play a minimal role given the rising energy demand driven by AI data center power consumption.

However, any numbers lower than the forecast net change could still put more pressure on the oil price, triggering a temporary pullback. Perhaps enough to resolve the $85 price target.

Another factor that could push oil prices lower is the expectation that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October. The next Fed rate decision is expected between October 27 and 28, leaving the market with a few days to react.

Polymarket currently gives a no-change decision in October a 75% chance, implying that its potential impact may already be priced into the current oil price. However, depending on how Fed Chair Kevin Warsh frames his statement on the decision taken, it could still have an impact on oil prices.