Florida's primary is Tuesday and it stopped being a race 18 months ago
Florida does not hold a runoff for governor, so whoever leads on Tuesday night wins outright
On February 20, 2025, Trump posted an endorsement for governor of Florida. "I know Byron well, have seen him tested at the highest and most difficult levels, and he is a TOTAL WINNER!"
Byron Donalds did not announce his campaign until the 25th.
18 months later, Florida Republicans vote on Tuesday, and Polymarket's primary market has him at 98.3 cents. Buying against James Fishback costs 98.0, and pays a bit more: 2.04% against 1.73%.
Donalds has not trailed in any poll throughout the entire race:
- More than $90 million raised, $23m of it in the second quarter alone
- A $20 million statewide advertising campaign launched on June 30, in a race he was winning by 40
- Elon Musk, Rick Scott, Donald Trump Jr and most of Florida's county sheriffs endorsed him
- A polling average of 48.7
This is one of the safest bets available on Polymarket at the time of writing, providing a whopping 533% annualized return when buying No Fishback, or about 2% in 4 days.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
