Everybody wants to hand this man money even after he lost $35 billion
He was up 439% for the year through June and then lost roughly two thirds of the fund in a single month
On July 24, Leopold Aschenbrenner wrote to his investors and asked them for more money, effective August 1. Six days later, Citadel bought most of his stock portfolio in a single block because his lenders had run out of patience. His fund, Situational Awareness, was up 439% through June. By the end of July it had gone from about $45bn to roughly $10bn. Polymarket's new capital market charges 11 cents for that money turning up by August 31, and we are betting against it at 89 cents to earn 12.36% in 15 days.
The rules state that an announcement does not count, nor does a subscription signed and not funded. Money from Aschenbrenner and his own staff also does not count. The cash has to move, and then somebody outside has to confirm it moved, either the firm or enough reporters agreeing. The thing is, hedge funds do not publish deposit slips. This is a very important fact many do not consider, on top of the following:
- The Financial Times reported on July 30 that he had approached existing investors and lenders
- One person familiar with the talks called it "opportunistic rather than part of a formal fundraising process"
- On August 6, the firm put $400m into a private company, taking its stake there to $500m
- It still owns Anthropic stock from a round that valued the company at $965bn
- Bloomberg reported a surge of investor interest on August 7
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
