CLARITY Act odds sink as midterms threaten its future

The long-awaited CLARITY Act keeps facing an increasingly difficult path to becoming law in 2026. And more obstacles are arising.

According to Polymarket, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act has just a 6% chance of being signed into law by December 31, with more than $24 million traded on the outcome.

As the year began, traders were far more confident of it being passed into law, pricing it near 82% in February. By mid-year, the chances began plunging.

The prospects dropped drastically after the Senate failed to advance the legislation in a September 15 procedural vote. They fell short of the 60 needed votes, ending with 50-49 and with four Republicans joining Democrats in opposition. Reuters reported that this stumbling block put the bill on ice, since Congress was preparing to leave Washington ahead of the midterms.

Witt’s departure adds another question mark

The latest setback for this landmark bill, which aims to establish a federal framework for digital-asset markets, comes as Patrick Witt, Donald Trump’s top crypto adviser, leaves the administration. Witt was in charge of leading the White House efforts to negotiate and advance the bill, but he left his role this week. The Block reported that Witt had played a central role in negotiations with senators.

His leaving doesn’t mean the administration has abandoned the legislation, but it opens a level of uncertainty over who’s leading the effort through the remainder of the year. Notably, disagreements over stablecoin rewards, ethics provisions, and Trump’s crypto interests have all complicated negotiations.

Could the midterms change the equation?

Moreover, the legislative landscape could reshape following November midterms, and this may affect the bill’s chances of passing, at least for this year.

If Democrats win one or both chambers, they could gain greater power to investigate the crypto industry and the administration’s ties to it, according to Reuters.

A change in control of the Senate, where the bill sits stuck, could also shift the bill’s political support and negotiating priorities. This would, at the very least, prolong its purgatory time.

Still, a year-end deal remains possible, particularly during a post-election lame-duck session. But lawmakers would need to resolve some massive disputes and find the votes they need, which traders see as an outcome with little probability.