Can Greenland leave Denmark before the end of 2026?

Greenland, a part of Denmark, has a population of 56,000 people. It operates its own parliament and government, while Denmark handles its defense, foreign policy, and a significant portion of its budget.

In January, the President of the United States expressed his intention to acquire Greenland. Consequently, tariffs on Danish goods were imposed and subsequently removed within five days. As a precautionary measure, Denmark dispatched troops and allocated 88 billion kroner to Arctic defense.

Of course, every political party in Greenland’s parliament envisions independence someday in the future. Polymarket has placed a bet on whether this independence will be achieved this year.

But for the contract to settle as 'yes', Greenland must hold a referendum on leaving Denmark, and a majority of the voters must cast a 'yes' vote before December 31. However, if a vote is scheduled but not held, then the contract will settle 'no'. The current odds for 'yes' are 4.5%.

As of now, there are 123 days remaining, and no referendum has been scheduled. No date has been set, and no bill has been presented for consideration. This information was reiterated by Britain’s House of Commons Library in July.

Greenland’s Self-Government Act of 2009 grants it the authority to leave Denmark, provided it follows a three-step process. First, Greenland’s parliament must vote to hold a referendum. Second, the people of Greenland must cast a majority “yes” vote. Finally, the two governments must reach an agreement on the terms of separation, which will then be approved by the Danish parliament.

Step one is the easy one. Calling a referendum requires 16 votes in a 31-seat parliament, and Premier Jens-Frederik Nielsen’s coalition holds 19, even after one of his four parties withdrew in March. He could put the question to the people tomorrow. Nobody is compelling him to do so.

Step two is the actual problem. Last year’s poll revealed that 56% of the population would vote to leave. However, the same poll also found that 45% would not, if leaving meant sacrificing their standard of living. A subsequent poll conducted a month later showed that 85% prioritized welfare, schools, and hospitals over independence.

Denmark contributes significantly to this welfare. In 2024, its yearly grant amounted to approximately 4.8 billion kroner, which is nearly half of Greenland’s government’s total expenditure. A 'yes' vote this year would essentially mean losing half of the public budget.

Therefore, the person with the authority to call the referendum would be asking his voters to give up their own hospitals on four months’ notice, and their schools, their pensions, and the Danish troops. Which is why 4.5% is quite a high probability for something that will not happen.