Box office is offering 20% for backing the obvious answer
Traders have put $15.8 million into which film wins 2026, more than any election market on the board today
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Spider-Man: Brand New Day opens this Friday, July 31. No critic has published a review, no ticket has been torn, and bettors on Polymarket's 2026 box office market already have it at 83 cents to finish the year as the biggest film of 2026. That's about a 20% return.
It settles on Box Office Mojo's calendar gross column, which only counts money taken in American and Canadian cinemas between January 1 and December 31. Worldwide totals are irrelevant. So is China.
The target is about $500 million because Toy Story 5 leads the year at home with $448.6 million, crossing $1 billion worldwide on Sunday, while The Odyssey has taken $286.4 million in 10 days.
Deadline's tracking has Spider-Man opening between $180 and $190 million, and Boxoffice Pro raised that to $200 million on Sunday. Tom Holland's last solo film, No Way Home, opened at $260 million and finished at $814.8 million, a little over three times its first weekend. Three times a $190 million opening is $570 million, and Spider-Man has 154 days of 2026 to get there.
Its only real rival gets 14 days. Avengers: Doomsday opens on December 18, thirteen days before the market settles.
Can it still beat Spider-Man? Unlikely.
Only one film in history has taken $500 million at home in its first fortnight, and that was The Force Awakens over Christmas 2015. Avengers: Endgame did not manage it. Avatar: The Way of Water opened enormous in December 2022 and still lost the calendar year to Top Gun: Maverick, which came out in May.
Doomsday also shares December 18 with Dune: Part Three. To win, it needs every screen in the country. If two enormous films opening on the same Friday split the screens, the showtimes, and the premium formats between them, then, logically, the box office earnings will be lower.
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