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Traders are betting against Hollywood on Nolan's Odyssey

Every forecaster published the same range for Nolan's Odyssey, and a market full of amateurs has been sitting above all of them
Started Jul 24, 202622:00
By Dr. Toghrul Aliyev|Edited by Toghrul Aliyev
Traders are betting against Hollywood on Nolan's Odyssey
25 Jul, 04:00 UTC

The $92 to $98 million range has fallen back from 46% to 25%.

The $86 to $92 million range climbed through the whole episode, from 43% to 53% to 62.5%, and it is sitting there now.

As of this hour, the crowd puts roughly a 60% chance on The Odyssey making $86 million or more, against Hollywood's $84.5 million, which sits one range lower and trades at 11 cents.

25 Jul, 01:00 UTC

The $92 to $98 million range has just gone from 13% to 46% in one hour. In the same hour, the $74 to $80 million range died at 1.1%, and the $80 to $86 million range was cut from 21.5% to 10%.

24 Jul, 22:00 UTC

In the last hour, the $86 to $92 million range jumped from 27% to 50.5%. The $80 to $86 million range, which includes Hollywood's $84.5 million take, fell from 37% to 27%.

The money has crossed over Deadline's number and is now sitting above it.

24 Jul, 14:00 UTC

Thursday's gross is in at $17.5 million, the biggest Thursday of 2026 and the biggest Thursday of Christopher Nolan's career. Domestic total through Thursday is $199.3 million, worldwide $363.6 million, in 11 days.

Deadline and The Hollywood Reporter both call the second weekend at $84.5 million, a 32% drop. Boxoffice Pro says $75 to $85 million. Box Office Theory goes lower at $70 to $80 million.

At $84 million, it is already the biggest second weekend of Nolan's career, past The Dark Knight's $75.1 million.

On Polymarket, the $86 to $92 million range has ticked up from 19% to 26%, still behind Hollywood's own answer.

23 Jul, 20:00 UTC

The Odyssey made $18 million on Wednesday, down 2% from Tuesday.

If weekdays are flat like this, then the weekend drop will likely be small. A small drop from a $123.5 million opening is a very large second weekend.

The $80 to $86 million range has climbed from 31% to 42% in the last two hours, and the under $74 million range has been buried at 1.5%.

22 Jul, 17:00 UTC

The Odyssey took $21.4 million on Tuesday. That beats the $20.9 million The Dark Knight made on a Tuesday in 2008, the biggest Tuesday in box office history, and a record Nolan set himself.

21 Jul, 16:00 UTC

The first number of the week is in. The Odyssey took $18.67 million on Monday, the best Monday any film has recorded in 2026, and more than the entire opening weekend of Obsession.

The $80 to $86 million range has just fallen from 48% to 26.5%, and the under $74 million range has jumped from 14.5% back to 29%.

21 Jul, 09:00 UTC

Overnight, the pessimists have been cleared out too. The chance of a second weekend under $74 million has collapsed from 38% to 11% in a single hour, the largest hour this market has had so far.

Both ends are now dead, and the money has crowded into one answer, $80 to $86 million, priced near 50%.

21 Jul, 01:00 UTC

In five hours, the optimistic end has been cleared out. A second weekend above $98 million has fallen from 43.5% to 1.5%. The $92 to $98 million range is down from 37% to 20.5%.

No new figures have been published.

20 Jul, 20:00 UTC

Polymarket opened on The Odyssey's second weekend with six possible ranges, and all six were priced at roughly 44 cents on the dollar.

The only numbers known so far are the opening ones: $123.5 million domestic, $257 million worldwide, and an A CinemaScore from opening-night audiences.

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