LIVELIVE: July ISM manufacturing survey and the Polymarket odds
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S&P Global's flash reading for July, published on the 27th, had input costs at their highest since May 2025 and the prices factories charge rising at the fastest rate since August 2022. Brent crude rose about 24% through July, its strongest month since March. And the New York Fed reported in July that around 90% of the cost of tariffs has landed on American firms and consumers, with 44% of manufacturers still holding price increases they have not passed on yet.
The July manufacturing survey lands at 10:00 AM. Polymarket's ISM ladder has $25,000 on it and settles today.
The economists' consensus for July is 54.0, considering that June came in at 53.3. The most probable bucket on Polymarket is 53.0 to 53.9 at 28%, and the 54.0 to 54.9 bucket at 26%.
If the number is higher than 50, then the factory sector is growing and vice versa.
The survey asks purchasing managers at a few hundred factories whether things got better, worse or stayed the same, and turns the answers into one number.
