Trump and Obama put Mississippi Senate race in focus

Two US presidents are campaigning in Mississippi to support opposing candidates, while the Senate election markets for the state heavily favor the Republican candidate, despite tighter polling results.

On October 27 (noon UTC), on the Mississippi Senate election market, Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith is priced at 87% to win, compared with 14% for Democratic challenger Scott Colom.

The odds have moved 1% down for the Republican over the past week.

Overall, this market has seen around $385,370 in volume. The relatively low volume compared to other states could perhaps be explained by traders’ strong expectations that this is not a competitive state, and that Hyde-Smith will retain her seat.

The polling suggests a closer race. A Change Research poll put Hyde-Smith at 43% and Colom at 40%. The three-point gap is narrow enough to keep Democrats fighting for the seat.

Trump responds as Democrats target Mississippi

Meanwhile, Donald Trump campaigned in Mississippi on October 26 to defend Hyde-Smith. This came as her reelection bid has become more competitive than many expected.

Earlier in October, former President Barack Obama backed Colom in an ad campaign.

And with that, this traditionally Republican stronghold has turned into a national campaign battleground ahead of the midterms set for November 3.

Trump’s portrayed Colom as a radical left-wing candidate and defended his own economic record. He went on to say that his administration’s achievements are helpful to Republicans in the midterms, despite many voters’ concerns about affordability and inflation.

Obama, on the other hand, has urged Mississippi voters to support Colom, discussing his record as a district attorney, as well as promises to address rising costs and protect healthcare.

What’s more, National Democrats have also invested in the race. Senate Majority PAC announced $1.2 million in TV advertising supporting Colom.

Democrats are trying to regain control of the Senate, but Mississippi is quite a challenge. Trump won the red state by nearly 23 percentage points in 2024, so Hyde-Smith still has a major partisan advantage on her side.

Traders will likely need to keep an eye on the polls and on whether the Democrats’ rally in this state translates to votes, as this may affect the odds in the related markets.