Traders remain bullish on Anthropic despite cutting IPO valuation

Anthropic made public its IPO S-1 on Monday, as it is set to list on the NASDAQ Global Select Market under the ticker symbol ANT. ANT and ANTH were the leading candidates for the trading symbol, according to traders on Polymarket, with ANTH attracting more than $82k in volume and ANT locking in $68k.

September reports said the company was targeting a $2 trillion valuation, and in Predictbook’s previous coverage, the expectation was Anthropic would easily beat SpaceX’s first close market cap of $2.1 trillion. 

However, the recent AI stock sell-off and growing concerns about AI companies’ ability to finance infrastructure and growth requirements have put that valuation into question. The company’s IPO valuation is now estimated at $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion.

Yet Polymarket traders still see it as more likely to top the $1.75 trillion valuation at the close of the first day of trading versus falling below it.

According to the Polymarket contract, the Anthropic IPO closing market cap on the first day of trading: the $1.5T-$1.75T valuation has a 17% chance, with $1.25T-$1.5T odds standing at 6%, and the <$1.25T at a 3% chance. That’s just 26% in total odds for a market cap of $1.75 trillion or lower. About 71% predict valuations of $1.75 trillion or higher. 

The most likely valuation is $1.75T-$2T, which carries 34% odds, while $2T-$2.25T has a 22% chance. The $2.25T-$2.5T market cap has been given a 13% chance, and there are low single-digit odds for $2.5T-$2.75T and $2.75T to $3T. Interestingly, there is also a small percentage for no IPO in 2026, at 3%.

Why traders remain bullish on Anthropic

Odds on Anthropic’s market cap forecasts for the first day of trading have not changed much since the announcement, with a majority of the targets gaining single-digit percentages. The $1.75T-$2T valuation moved the most, with odds rising from last week’s 28% to 34% since the public filing of the S-1 form.

The S-1 showed that Anthropic revenue increased several times in the first half of 2026, compared to 2025. The company said it generated $16.3 billion in revenue for the six months ending June 30, 2026, compared to $1.2 billion over the same period last year.

Although net loss for the period stood at $80.7 billion, $72.4 billion was as a result of a one-time accounting charge related to convertible notes and financial instruments, according to a report by the NY Times. Operating loss fell to $693 million, down from $2.1 billion in 2025.

The company also holds over $123 billion in cash and cash equivalents, which could be useful as it lays the foundation for growth.

Therefore, given the company’s strong financial position, this explains why traders still see its market cap at the close of the first day of trading being $1.75 trillion or higher. And at 34% ($0.34 per share) and over $475k in volume for the $1.75T-$2T valuation, this looks like the most realistic target. Both in terms of risk and reward.