Is Man United at 33% an overreaction for the Leeds derby?

Manchester United were favorites a week ago for Sunday's Roses derby at Elland Road. The tables have now turned after a week to forget for the Red Devils. Leeds are now at 42% to win, with the draw at 27% and United at just 33%.

United's price first dropped after last weekend's home game against Spurs, when their opponents scored a stoppage-time equalizer. Old Trafford responded with boos after the game. That was followed by a 2-0 defeat in the Champions League on Tuesday to Atletico Madrid.

This season has seen their worst domestic start in 40 years, as they are currently winless in five games across all competitions.

Things came to a boiling point after center-half Lisandro Martinez made some controversial comments in the aftermath of Tuesday's game. He criticized how the club operates and complained about sporting director Jason Wilcox not bringing in more quality players during the summer transfer window.

The case that 33% is too low

There is a real argument that the market has gone too far. United's squad on paper is still much stronger than Leeds', and many of the same players finished third in the league just a few months ago.

Derby matches often produce a reaction from teams that are under fire. The Martinez row could go both ways, as dressing room turmoil sometimes causes teams to collapse, but others rally around a common grievance.

United haven't given the market much reason to back them, between failing to beat ten-man Spurs at home and conceding in the first minute in Madrid. They're now traveling to one of England's more hostile crowds amid an ongoing public row.

Predictbook thinks that United's 33% is a mild overreaction, with a price closer to 38% being more reasonable. It's a thin market, still with only around $18,000 traded, so a handful of large trades can move it.

The value, if anything, lies in the draw at 27%. United's problems probably aren't temporary, but Sunday is a tough place to prove that they can overcome them.