Has Zverev become unstoppable at the Shanghai Masters?

The Shanghai Masters has lost almost every big name it had. World number one Jannik Sinner announced on October 6 that his season is over as he undergoes treatment for inflammation in his right knee. That rules him out of Vienna, Paris, and the ATP Finals as well.

Novak Djokovic and US Open runner-up Ben Shelton both went out early, while 39th-ranked Zizou Bergs beat Carlos Alcaraz 7-5, 7-6 on Monday in the third round. That loss effectively confirmed Alexander Zverev as the year-end world number one, the first German male to finish the season on top.

Coming into the quarterfinal, there were reasons to question Zverev. He had complained that his ankle was "acting up" after a three-set battle with Alexander Bublik, and his opponent, Alex de Minaur, had won their last two meetings.

None of that showed on Thursday as Zverev beat De Minaur 6-4, 6-4 to reach the semifinals. Polymarket's Shanghai winner market reacted quickly. His price jumped from 38% to 48%, making him close to a coin flip to win the title outright.

His semifinal opponent will be Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who advanced after Arthur Gea retired from their quarterfinal with the Spaniard leading 4-1.

How the board looks now

Zverev leads at 48%, followed by Daniil Medvedev at 24%, Davidovich Fokina at 11%, Rafael Jodar at 10%, Casper Ruud at 7%, and Tommy Paul at 6%. The market has traded about $67,000 so far, with almost half of that total on Zverev. It's a thin market, so prices can swing significantly based on each result.

The 48% price for Zverev to win is generally fair. He should be a strong favorite against Davidovich Fokina, who ranks 26th. The market is maybe slightly generous given the ankle issues, but it's roughly right.

The price that looks wrong to Predictbook is Medvedev's. He's the clear second favorite at 24%, but he still has three matches left to win. He faces Tommy Paul in the quarterfinals, then most likely Jodar or Ruud in the semifinals. It looks likely that Medvedev will reach the final. Even with his edge in the earlier matches, his fair chance looks closer to 15%.

Davidovich Fokina at 11% is about right for a player who must beat the world's year-end No. 1 just to reach the final. The retirement means he arrives fresh, but nobody has tested him since Tuesday.

Predictbook's view is that Zverev deserves his favorite tag, and Medvedev is the player to oppose on this board. If he struggles against Paul, expect his price to fall fast.