Could Apple become the largest company by market cap in October 2026?

Apple shares shot up 1.23% on Thursday, valuing the iPhone maker at $5.08 trillion. The company is now within $30 billion of Nvidia’s market cap, which fell 4.4% to $5.11 trillion amid the ongoing AI sell-off. 

Apple’s stock price spike comes as its foldable iPhone, the iPhone Duo, hits stores on October 23. While the new flagship device is already facing various supply chain constraints — limited in-store walk-in stock and delayed deliveries for online orders — investors don’t seem to be concerned about that.

Any more upward movement, coupled with a move in the opposite direction by Nvidia, will certainly see Apple become the largest company by market cap in October, even if just momentarily.

This could create an opportunity for traders on prediction market platforms like Polymarket.

Earlier on Thursday, odds of Apple becoming the largest company by the end of October 2026 rose to 32.8%, up from 8%, while Nvidia’s fell to 68.2%, down from 90.8%.

However, Nvidia managed to recoup some losses as the day progressed and earlier on Friday, and now sits ‘comfortably’ at 79% to end October as the largest company, versus Apple’s 21% odds.

Apple could easily flip Nvidia in market cap before the close of trading on October 23, which could significantly alter the odds of ending the month as the largest company in its favor.

Currently, traders can buy Apple contracts on Polymarket at around $0.22 per share, compared to Nvidia’s $0.78 per share.

Why buying yes Apple could be a smart play

Apple is not only riding on the excitement of its iPhone Duo release, but also on the back of the AI sell-off that seems to be getting worse every week. 

With investors seemingly using Apple as a cushion to balance the impact of the AI sell-off on their portfolios, this will likely continue to raise demand for Apple stock, even if it is just short-term

Secondly, Apple reports its fiscal fourth-quarter results on November 2nd; that’s more than two weeks before Nvidia reports earnings.

This makes the final week of October the only time traders can accumulate more Apple shares pre-earnings, especially if they expect an earnings beat that could drive the stock price higher. And there will be two weeks before Nvidia excitement kicks in in the countdown to its earnings on November 17.