Can the Anthropic IPO push OpenAI valuation above $1.3T?
Based on its last funding round, OpenAI closed at an $852B valuation, while Anthropic, valued at $965B, is going public at a near-$2T valuation.
OpenAI and Anthropic are the two biggest pure-play agentic AI companies, with current valuations putting both companies well above $3 trillion. Anthropic is set to go public before the end of the year, with traders on Polymarket heavily favoring a November listing, with over 70% odds on a yes bet. The company is reportedly eyeing a listing value of around $2 trillion, as reported by Predictbook last week.
On the other hand, OpenAI is reportedly looking to raise $30 billion in a funding round at a valuation of $1.4 trillion. While these two figures cannot be confirmed until the two respective events take place, one might be enough to push the price higher for the other.
Anthropic’s IPO is likely to happen first, around mid-November, in which case it could force a re-evaluation of OpenAI pricing on Nasdaq Private Markets and Forge Global, among other platforms.
OpenAI has several markets running on Polymarket Private Markets, with one of the most recently added being what the company would be valued at by the end of November.
As of this writing on Wednesday, traders gave a valuation of over $1.3 trillion a 25% chance, for $0.26 per share.
Why do I think this market is interesting?
As mentioned in the beginning, public listings tend to affect the pricing of privately held companies, especially if they operate in similar markets.
SpaceX merged with xAI in February, just months before going public. Since its listing in June, we have witnessed AI company valuations skyrocket.
The valuations being reported for the likes of Anthropic and OpenAI are partially due to a re-evaluation of the companies based on revenue and margins.
SpaceX's forecast revenue for 2026 is about $46 billion, whereas Anthropic has an annualized revenue run-rate of about $65 billion. This is why some analysts have gone as far as to project a $3 trillion valuation for Anthropic when it goes public. In comparison, OpenAI’s annualized revenue run-rate is now approaching $70 billion.
Therefore, if Anthropic lists for $2 trillion, shouldn’t OpenAI be worth at least north of $1.3 trillion? Of course, but now all eyes will be on Anthropic to see whether it does list in November, because if it doesn’t, then the over $1.3 trillion OpenAI valuation on Polymarket could resolve to a no.
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