Can Nvidia stock price stay above $224 in October?

Nvidia shares are up 2.5% after the company, together with SoftBank, announced Friday that they had completed the final $20 billion investment in OpenAI’s $30 billion funding round. 

The stock has set a new all-time high of $237.88 before pulling back slightly to trade at $235 per share as of this writing, 3:15 pm UTC.

Nvidia is one of the most actively traded assets on prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi. On Polymarket, traders are giving the stock price a 57% chance of hitting $224 in October. 

It is the market with the second-biggest chance after $240, which boasts a 76% chance, while $248 is at 45%.

While a pullback cannot be ruled out even heading into Nvidia’s third-quarter results to be released on November 17, a no bet on Nvidia's stock price hitting $224 may be an unpopular but smarter choice. 

Why Nvidia stock price could stay above $224 in October

Nvidia reports its fiscal Q3 results on November 17, hot on the heels of the US midterms. The company will be one of the last to report earnings among other major AI players. Micron Technology already delivered a strong quarter, while privately held Anthropic, expected to go public in November, and OpenAI, expected to list next year, are rapidly revising their valuations upwards.

So, it is a good time to be Nvidia. And after submitting the final $10 billion investment of its $30 billion commitment to OpenAI, those rising valuations will only boost the value of the world’s biggest company.

Another factor that could spur Nvidia's stock price further is the increasing expectation that the Federal Reserve won't hike rates in October. Higher interest rates are pushing bond yields to territories witnessed nearly two decades ago, which does not play well for risk assets like tech stocks.

While AI has helped some technology companies remain resilient at a time of rising bond yields, analysts were already beginning to question how long they can hold amid talks of back-to-back rate hikes.

That now seems highly unlikely, with Polymarket traders giving a “no change” decision in October an 82% chance.