Are the Dodgers overpriced at 7% after falling 3-0 behind?
The Dodgers have fallen to 7% in the World Series market after going 3-0 down to Milwaukee. Predictbook explains why that price may still be too high.
The Los Angeles Dodgers were the clear favorites to win a third straight World Series just three days ago. Polymarket's $44.5 million World Series market priced them at 42%, almost double the Milwaukee Brewers at 24%.
Three games later, and the picture has totally flipped. The Brewers won 6-2 at Dodger Stadium on Wednesday to take a 3-0 lead in the National League Championship Series. Milwaukee is now at 56% to win the World Series, and the Dodgers have collapsed to 7%.
The scoreline is a mirror image of last season, when the Dodgers swept the Brewers 4-0 on their way to winning their second successive title. This time, Milwaukee, who finished with the best record in baseball at 103-59, has controlled the series.
The Brewers have never won a pennant and haven't reached a World Series since 1982, and are just one win away from changing that.
What history says about 3-0
Comebacks from this position almost never happen. More than 40 teams in MLB history have gone 3-0 down in best-of-seven series, and only one has ever recovered. The only exception was the Boston Red Sox in 2004, when they came back against the Yankees. Therefore, the success rate is only about 2%.
The Dodgers' 7% World Series price asks for far more than that. They must win four straight games against the best in-form team in baseball and then win the World Series to cash.
Predictbook's read is that even 7% from this point is too high. Even if the Dodgers were a coin flip in each remaining game, their chance of winning four in a row would be about 6%. Add in the World Series they would need to win against either Tampa Bay or Cleveland, and the fair price drops nearer 3-4%.
The price difference looks to be a brand premium, as some traders are clearly still paying for the name on the jersey and not the position the team is in.
Traders who backed Milwaukee at $0.24 before the series have already been rewarded, and the market has now caught up with the Brewers, but not completely with the Dodgers.
A Dodgers win in Game 4 in Los Angeles would keep the series alive, but even at 3-1 down, the math barely improves. Unless Los Angeles produces something close to the greatest comeback in baseball history, that 7% is money the market won't see again.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
