Apple's market cap soars past $5 trillion to close the gap on Nvidia

Apple stock on Thursday extended Wednesday’s gains to trade at about $347 per share, valuing the company at $5.06 trillion. On the other hand, Nvidia shares fell more than 3% in the opening hours to about $214 per share, valuing the AI data center giant at $5.17 trillion. 

That leaves just over $100 billion in market cap separating the two companies, with the race for the largest company by December 31, 2026, heating up on the prediction markets platform Polymarket. 

Last Thursday, Nvidia was the outright favorite to end the year as the biggest company by market cap, with odds above 88%, against Apple’s 8.6%. One week later, Nvidia is still highly favored to end the year with the biggest market capitalization in the world at 64%. However, Apple's odds have since risen significantly to 34%.

The topsy-turvy odds swings will likely continue for the remainder of the campaign. When Predictbook covered the market two weeks ago, Nvidia had a 76% chance to close the year as the largest company by market cap, against Apple’s odds at the time of about 16%.

Traders who bought our recommendation at the time, which was to buy “yes Apple” at $0.17 per share, are now at a near 100% return on investment after fees, based on the current price of about $0.34.

What is driving Apple’s latest surge in market cap?

Apple’s current rally comes following Monday’s stock price upgrade to $360 from $340 by JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee, who reiterated his overweight rating on the stock. 

The company also announced various Smart Home and entertainment devices on Tuesday that strengthen its position in the AI space. The products will be powered by its upgraded SiriAI and give it a firmer grasp of the world’s fastest-growing industries.

The company also plans to roll out Apple Intelligence in Mainland China this December as it looks to establish a strong base in one of the world’s biggest AI markets.

All these positive developments come at a time when the company’s iPhone 18 Pro line-up is hitting the market. Released in mid-September, the company’s latest version of the iPhone was performing better than its predecessor, the iPhone 17, according to earlier reports.

Since then, supply constraints linked to chip shortages have emerged, raising questions as to whether that could affect production cycles. 

However, investors see the chip-related constraints as something normal in the company’s production cycle and, thus, do not expect a major adverse impact, IBD reported on Monday.