Alaska and Maine put Democrats’ Senate hopes to the test

Alaska and Maine have emerged as key US Senate races. Both are high-stakes contests in Democrats’ fight to reclaim the Senate and are two very distinct political challenges.

These are states with different political histories, both with Republican-held Senate seats, and both could be crucial to Democrats’ effort to take control of Congress in November.

Based on the odds alone, the traders seem confident in their choices, at least for now.

Two states, two different paths to a Democratic pickup

In Alaska, Polymarket gives Mary Peltola a 74% chance of defeating Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. The market has generated about $1.3 million in trading volume.

This is quite a position for a Democrat in a state that the current president, Donald Trump, carried by roughly 14 percentage points back in 2024.

Peltola represented Alaska in the House from 2022 to 2025 and is known for a pragmatic, bipartisan approach, supporting local oil and gas development. She faces Sullivan, who’s seeking a third term.

Recent polls show Peltola ahead. Still, Alaska’s conservative lean is a major hurdle she must cross. Trump actually campaigned for Sullivan this week. However, the overall high energy prices and dissatisfaction with the Trump administration could be helping Peltola and working against the Republican candidate.

In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Susan Collins at 60%. But Maine is a different challenge. The state has generally favored Democrats in presidential elections, but Collins has repeatedly won as a Republican through her independent, bipartisan image. She’s now seeking her sixth term, and in doing so, she faces Jackson, a former president of the Maine Senate. The market, with more than $2.2 million in volume, prices Collins at 42%.

Polling shows a narrow contest here as well. A Washington Post/Schar School survey put Jackson at 50% and Collins at 46%, and this is within the poll’s margin of error. The central issues in this race include healthcare, abortion access, and the cost of living.

What it means for control of the Senate

Polymarket’s 2026 balance-of-power market gives Democrats a 63% chance of sweeping both chambers. Meanwhile, a Republican Senate and Democratic House is currently priced at 29%. The market has attracted nearly $23.5 million in volume.

Importantly, Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority, which means that Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take over. So, winning Alaska and Maine would give them two pickups, making these states major tests of whether this latest Democratic push can overcome traditional Republican advantages.