How a top 150 Polymarket trader uses a single-sport edge to win millions
This Polymarket whale wiped out a week of losses in three hours, exposing his single biggest market secret
At 7:14 p.m. Eastern on September 15, our whale alert flagged an outsized bet from a wallet known as ethanaz. He put $214,789 behind the Detroit Tigers at 46 cents in their matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Roughly three hours later, that position was worth $466,931.95, locking in a $246,344 profit on one trade.
That swing instantly became his biggest single‑market win to date. Interestingly, all of his top bets by profit are baseball bets:
- Detroit Tigers at 46 cents: +$246,344
- Pittsburgh Pirates at 46.7 cents: +$210,572
- St. Louis Cardinals at 75 cents: +$100,709
- Washington Nationals at 70 cents: +$86,850
- San Francisco Giants at 45 cents: +$79,964
Most of those entries sit in a range you’d expect from coin‑flip games. In other words, despite ethanaz targeting markets where the price is close to 50-50, he likely has an edge that helps him win.
However, that edge is mostly limited to baseball games. All 20 of his worst losses came outside baseball. 11 were basketball, starting with a $136,248 hit on the Spurs against the Knicks and running through two NBA Summer League games that cost him another $102,364. The rest are mostly soccer, including a $116,551 loss on Germany at the World Cup, with college football and golf rounding out the list.
For now, ethanaz struggles to find the same edge he has in baseball in other sports. In basketball and football, he tends to buy heavy favorites, trusting the crowd’s pricing. And that’s exactly how last weekend played out.
On September 13 and 14, with college football on Saturday and the NFL on Sunday, he bought Ohio State at 87¢, Green Bay at 87¢, the Raiders at 93¢, the Bears at 94¢, and Liberty at 95.5¢, and lost about $195,580 across the two days. But on Monday, he bought one baseball team at 46¢ and made it all back before midnight.
ethanaz is now up roughly $1.2 million and sits 148th on Polymarket’s all‑time profit leaderboard.
With a 52% win rate, a pure copy‑trading approach has to be all‑in or nothing. Either mirror every single trade, or accept that your own bias will likely steer you into the 48% of his losing bets. If you want cleaner, more focused exposure, follow only his baseball trades, as that’s where his real edge lies.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
